Mr.
Bush's Two Hats
by James Hall
December 5, 2001
"Leaning Left"
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The
message out of Washington is mixed these days. "Carry on with your life, do
your business" it says, "but be careful, vigilant, and patient." It's a schizophrenic
message at best. Even President Bush appears caught up in the schizophrenia.
Recently he attended the third game of the World Series in New York, while at
the same time Vice President Dick Cheney was spirited away to a hidden safe
location. And while urging Americans to travel, President Bush has closed off
public tours to the White House and a public presence at the lighting of the
White House Christmas Tree for security reasons. Such divided thinking is bound
to cause confusion, not confidence.
The problem lies with the president's two hats. As Commander-in-Chief, it's his job to run a war against terrorism, and to urge Americans to be vigilant and careful themselves. But as Chief Economic Cheerleader, it's also his responsibility to encourage Americans to exercise their normal consumer behavior. Unfortunately, the two jobs are in conflict at present. It would be more logical for the president to concentrate on creating a secure environment, and let the economic cycle take care of itself, which it will do if Americans feel secure enough to travel, shop, or otherwise spend their money.
Last month the president appeared in ads touting vacation and travel. Earlier, his brother Jeb appeared in commercials selling Florida as a vacation place, and we've now seen countless ads where we're being told its our duty to buy everything from meals at a restaurant to automobiles. The president even showed up at a town meeting here in Orlando today to declaim on the wonders of a Florida vacation and encourage Floridians to go traveling themselves. Go out and spend money, was the message, it's good for America.
Okay, it's patriotic to buy, but is it wise? With a flattening economy, Americans are being more careful about what they spend their money on, saving something for emergencies in the same way that one puts up the shutters and clears away the lawn furniture before signs of an approaching storm. This kind of reduced, careful spending is only prudent in an atmosphere where layoffs are common and prominent corporations like Enron fall into bankruptcy.
This sort of caution becomes especially relevant when the administration issues a terrorist watch, which it did for the fourth time since September 11th this week. Credible evidence exists, says John Ashcroft, that terrorists will strike at Americans or American interests before the end of Ramadan, which comes barely two weeks before Christmas this year. This advice is good to know--it helps us be more vigilant, pay attention to what's around us, but it certainly doesn't make us feel confident either in flying around the country or going out into public spaces, especially when we see attacks on Israel's principal shopping mall kill dozens of people.
The US economy is caught between the Scylla of economic recession and the Charybdis of terror attacks. People can't afford to spend too much and don't want to expose themselves to harm by spending it, either. Caught between these twin concerns, the consumer isn't going to come out and risk wreck despite the patriotic pleading of economic cheerleaders.
Fortunately, the solution to this problem isn't far off. The recession cycle has been in place for at least eight months, and historically isn't likely to last much longer. In recent days the stock market has rallied on the signs that a recovery is imminent. The other problem, security, is slowly being addressed with the passing of the Airline Security Act, better coordination within American law enforcement, and improved information from foreign intelligence abroad.
There's every chance that the principal cells of Al Qaeda will soon be rolled up, and its leadership in Afghanistan destroyed. The war there won't end the terrorist threat, but will go far to reduce it, as will improved security measures in the US and abroad. The economic cycle will shortly begin to swing up, whether we get a stimulus package soon or not from Congress.
Meanwhile, Americans will decide when and where to spend their money, and no amount of coaxing by the president or the industries involved will change that. If the president wants the economy to move faster, he should act to make things more secure, find and deal with terrorist threats like Al Qaeda and the anthrax mailer, and let economic nature take its course. Trying to wear two hats at once risks having them both fall off. ***
© 2001 James Hall
COPYRIGHT © 2001 BY THE AMERICAN PARTISAN. All writers retain rights to their work.