The Hard Road to Peace
by James Hall, Associate Editor
April 10, 2002
"Leaning Left"
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The Middle East is like one of those Chinese finger puzzles that you put on
your fingers. The harder you pull back, the more you are engaged. Stuck.
The Bush administration's approach was to let the two sides work the peace out on their own--only to have the region burst into flames. It's downfall was in assuming that Sharon and Arafat would prefer talk to violence and that they would act without pulling others in the region into that violence. The only way out for Bush now is the way you disengage a finger puzzle--put the two sides together peacefully.
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That
may be all but impossible now, whether US Secretary of State Colin Powell (right)
gets involved or not. With fresh blood spilled on both sides, and intransigent
leaders leading each side, hitting the lottery appears to be an easier task
that signing a peace accord.
This continuing lack of peace will be a major problem for the Bush administration, whose war against Iraq must remain on hold while Israelis battle Palestinians, while crowds around the world demonstrate against Israel and its principle supporter, the US. Even stalwart American allies like Turkey, Morocco and Egypt must deal with pro-Palestinian demonstrators on the street. Under these circumstances, the US cannot attack any Islamic nation, no matter how extreme its conduct, and expect any support from the Arab and Islamic world.
If you think that this conflict is simply Israelis versus Palestinians, you're way wrong. Both groups are split ideologically with links to other powerful forces in the Middle East. The Israeli Left wants a complete West Bank partition and would accept a peaceful Palestinian State. The Israeli Right wants to keep West Bank settlements and turn Palestine into a tame Arab reservation. Ordinary Palestinians want trade and commerce and jobs in Israel, while Palestinian refugees and religious extremists want an end to Israel herself.
But even this rough characterization of attitudes really ignores the complexities on the ground. Israel, who depends on US financial and military support, is strongly linked to the United States, and when it strikes at the Palestinian Authority, it is with US F-16s and Apache helicopters. Palestine is linked a variety of Arab and Islamic nations who keep it afloat financially. The politics is further entangled with Europe and Japan, who depend heavily on Middle Eastern oil, having an interest in events there. Even the United States, which buys only 10% of its oil from the region, is economically dependent on the oil price fluctuations that a Middle East conflict can create--as we are now seeing at the pump.
It's these complexities that have broken down Mr. Bush's simplistic dictum against terror. 'Either you're for us or against us" doesn't work in this region, which pits injustice against injustice, terror against terror, and the deaths of innocent civilians on both sides. When it comes to supporting Israel against Palestine, our Arab allies will be against us--and Mr. Bush's campaign against Al Qaeda and Saddam Hussein will grind to a halt.
President Bush has belatedly realized that a peace between Israel and Palestine is in our immediate interest. The difficulty, however, will be in getting it. Some of the tougher roadblocks to an agreement include:
Jerusalem
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The
Israeli Right and much of its Center want Jerusalem to be the undivided capital
of Israel. The Palestinians insist that Arab-occupied East Jerusalem is their
capital. Any deal dividing Jerusalem would be a nonstarter to Ariel Sharon and
the Right. Sharon (left) has himself bought land in East Jerusalem and declared
the city undivided. Any deal NOT dividing Jerusalem would be a nonstarter to
Arafat (right).
Al-Aqsa/Temple Mount
The Al-Aqsa Mosque, near the heart of Jerusalem, is the third holiest site in Islam. It's also the site of the Old Temple, Judaism's holiest site. Palestinians and most Arabs refuse to let the Mosque to remain in the hands of Israelis, and Ariel Sharon's visit to it in 2000 was the start of the current Intifada. Beneath Al Aqsa, built on the ruins of the Old Temple, is the Wailing Wall, a site particularly important to Orthodox Jews. Israelis have offered the Palestinians control over Al Aqsa but not sovereignty. Palestinians insist on both control and sovereignty.
West Bank Settlements
Many Israelis, especially from the Right, believe in a biblical-based Jewish right to settle in the West Bank, the location of many of the sites where the original nation of Israel existed. One of the reasons that suicide bombers have such an easy time infiltrating Israel is that Israelis have refused to fence off Israeli land from the West Bank for fear of creating a case for the exclusive ownership of the land by Palestinians. The West Bank settlements were the bane of President G. H. W. Bush's attempt to reach a peace agreement in the late 1980's, and they've only gotten bigger and more controversial since.
Right of Return
Palestinians who originally lived in Israeli-occupied territory and who fled from the 1948 War want to return to their lands there. Their right of return was originally guaranteed by UN resolution and is a significant part of negotiations. Israelis don't want any more Arab citizens than they already have.
The Nature of the Palestinian Statehood
What will a Palestinian State finally look like? Some Israelis would like to keep any future state demilitarized and control its borders, turning Palestine into the equivalent of an American Indian reservation or one of the Bantu States that white South Africans tried to force blacks into during Apartheid. Palestinians want a sovereign, independent state that controls its own borders.
1967 Boundaries
In general, Arab proposals have centered on the boundaries that existed before the Six Day War in 1967. The latest such proposal is Saudi Arabia's, which offered Arab recognition for a return to these boundaries, which would again divide Jerusalem and eliminate Israeli settlements on the West Bank. While Israel would accept this offer as a start to negotiations, it would never agree to roll back its borders to 1967.
Personalities and Politics
Not the least obstacle to overcome is the personal hatred of Ariel Sharon for Yasser Arafat and vice versa. Sharon has said he wished he had killed Arafat back in 1982 during the invasion of Lebanon. Sharon blames Arafat for the Intifada and suicide bombers. Arafat and most Palestinians blame Sharon for the death of 20,000 Palestinians massacred in the Shatilla refugee camps in Lebanon twenty years ago by a Christian Lebanese militia armed, trained, and commanded by Sharon.
In general, Sharon and the Likud Party have blocked peace initiatives which offered land for peace, while the Israeli Labor Party has supported such proposals. Sharon opposed the Camp David peace accord that resulted in a treaty with Egypt, the peace treaty with Jordan, and the Ehud Barak proposal in 2000. The likelihood that he would give up any land for peace is low. Arafat has had his opportunities, too, but has been reluctant to take any chances for a peaceful solution. Neither of these two is likely to be a leader of the peace process, but they are in charge of the parties now.
Anyone but an unrepentant optimist would have to say that the road to peace here is completely blocked. And while it remains blocked and the conflict continues, there will be little the Bush administration can do to prosecute its war against terrorism there. ***
© 2002 James Hall
COPYRIGHT © 2002 BY THE AMERICAN PARTISAN. All writers retain rights to their work.
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