The Exception to the Bush Doctrine

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The Exception to the Bush Doctrine
by James Hall, Associate Editor

May 8, 2002

"Leaning Left"

James Hall "Either you're with us or against us." - President George W. Bush, articulating the Bush Doctrine for the War Against Terrorism.

President George W. Bush (R-TX) (AP) Oops! When President Bush (right) uttered his famous dictum against terrorists and state-supported terrorism, he was thinking about picking fights with smallish nations like Afghanistan and the Sudan or with visceral enemies like Iran, Iraq, and North Korea--nations already unfriendly to us.

He never meant to place Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, and Indonesia into that equation. Or the nations of the European Union. But it's becoming increasingly clear that these nations are simply not with us when it comes to supporting Israel over the Palestinians, and so either Mr. Bush must eat his words or pick a fight with a group of nations who have their finger on our economy's on-off switch and who control the success or failure of Mr. Bush's war on terrorism, his top priorities.

It's doubtful that the Bush administration ever meant to pick a fight with our allies, or wants one now. This administration went to great trouble to build a consensus after September 11, essentially getting permission from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and other Islamic nations before beginning the attack on Afghanistan, and moving with the support of NATO, Russia, and China.

But the smoldering Israeli-Palestinian conflict burst into flame, and Americans responded to the pictures of Israelis bombed in buses, in restaurants, and in grocery stores. Support them, the victims of terror like ourselves, was our strong initial thought.

But Arabs and the Europeans see the conflict in a different light. They recall the 35-year occupation of Palestine by Israelis. They think about the men, women, and children killed by Israelis tanks, F-16s, and Apache helicopters. Thanks to Arab-language television stations like al-Jazeera and European networks like the BBC, they can watch the carnage of the Israeli occupation on television. They are ready to think the worst of Israel, and of us for helping Israel.

This is a disaster for President Bush, who needs Arab and European support for any war against Saddam Hussein and for continued actions against Al Qaeda. It was only with their cooperation that the US was able to efficiently defeat the Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and defeat the plotting of Al Qaeda cells in Europe. Most of the high profile arrests of Al Qaeda leadership have been made abroad in Europe or Pakistan. If these nations stop helping, the war on terrorism languishes and Al Qaeda can reconstitute itself.

Mr. Bush needs their support for the American economy, too. One of the dirty little secrets of the oil business is that oil is fungible. A decrease in oil production (especially from the Saudis, who control 25% of the world's reserves) means that oil prices everywhere, even domestically, go up. Should Saudi Arabia and other oil producers switch off the pump for a while, the rising price of oil would nip the current economic recovery in the bud, sinking Mr. Bush at the polls in the same way his dad was sunk.

The conflict over the Bush Doctrine extends to the Bush administration itself. Colin Powell leads a faction that understands the importance of keeping Europe and the Middle East on our side. Another faction, led by Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld and supported by conservative Christians and both houses of Congress, gives unqualified support to Israel. Theirs is the dominant political position in Washington these days, but it won't lead to the downfall of Yasser Arafat or the Palestinian Authority--no matter how much evidence of Palestinian complicity in bombing is brought by Ariel Sharon to the President.

Supporters of Israel who are puzzled at Mr. Bush's evenhanded attitude towards Yasser Arafat and Saudi Arabia have simply failed to understand that Dubya desperately needs to remain friends with the Arabs, and won't do anything to jeopardize that relationship. Israel may be important to Bush, but the success of the American economy and of America's war on terrorism abroad is more important to him. So for the Bush Doctrine, draw a big circle around the Middle East and add the words, "Does not apply here." ***

Photo of the author courtesy of staff files
Photo of President Bush courtesy of the Associated Press