Making My Axis Your Axis

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Making My Axis Your Axis
by James Hall, Associate Editor

May 29, 2002

"Leaning Left"

James Hall President Bush at Normandy (Reuters) President George W. Bush (right) spent the Memorial Day holiday overseas reminding Europeans and the Russians that we're fighting a war on terrorism. His speeches were well-written but broke no new ground, leading the German newspaper Tageszeitung to publish a blank page under its headline "Bush's historic speech."

Other than signing an agreement with the Russians to take more nuclear weapons off ready status, little was accomplished on the trip. Hence Dubya's dilemma remains unsolved: how do you convince people who don't see the Axis of Evil in the same light as you?

President Bush wants to go after Saddam Hussein so bad he can taste it. But his efforts to form another Gulf War coalition to topple the Iraqi dictator have fallen on deaf ears in Europe and Russia, where the population and the political establishment remains sympathetic to our efforts to rein in al-Qaeda, but are not at all enthusiastic about the Bush administration's plans to go after Iraq, Iran, and North Korea--states that are not US friends, but have no tangible links to al-Qaeda, either.

To counter the lack of linkage between 9/11 and the Axis of Evil, Bush warns of weapons of mass destruction sought by the Axis, which he claims they will give to al-Qaeda and other terror groups. The problem with this argument is that there's no solid proof of the Axis nations providing any help to al-Qaeda to support the argument. Moreover, Axis nations are getting much of their technology from Russia and China and the currency to pay for it from trade with Europe.

This means that Bush's Axis agenda runs counter to Europe's and Russia's economic interests. The US gets only 10% of its oil from the Middle East, but Europe's economy is heavily dependent on stable sources of Middle Eastern oil. Russia needs the hard currency generated by its trade with Iran in nuclear reactors and missile technology. A war in the Middle East hurts the already-struggling Russian and European economies.

And on an ideological level, Europe and the Russia just think differently than the Bush administration, which tends to see the world in black and white terms. Europe and the Russians see trade and the modernization of Axis states as the way to bring about change in them, while Bush wants to use political and economic pressure and military force instead. Bush wants to isolate the Axis, the Russians and Europe want to bring them into the community of civilized nations and make it difficult and costly for them to support any kind of terror.

While Bush wants Saddam out at all costs, Europeans are equally concerned about what a post-Saddam Iraqi government would look like. Without a strong central government, Iraq's Shiite, Sunni, and Kurdish factions might start a civil war, destabilizing the entire Middle east. Or, as one European diplomat put it, "Bush wants to kill the crocodile; Europeans want to drain the swamp."

It appears that after President Bush's visit, the administration has few choices. It can move against the Axis on its own, a difficult and expensive act, or it can develop a good public case that shows the danger the Axis poses by directly linking these nations to terrorist activities. A unilateral invasion of Iraq appears to be out of the question based on a shortage of military supplies and troops. That leaves the US in a coalition-building mode.

Until it makes a good case for terrorist linkage, there's no doubt that the Europeans and Russians will continue to see the war on terrorism in completely different lights than Mr. Bush does. And that the Bush Doctrine, "You're with us or against us," won't apply to Europe or Russia or China anymore than it applies to America's Arab allies like Saudi Arabia and Egypt or to Israel. From black and white, more shades of gray are emerging on the administration's geopolitical map. ***

Photo of the author courtesy of staff files
Photo of President George W. Bush (R-TX) courtesy of Reuters