Bush Administration Exaggerates Iraqi Threat to Build Support for Invasion

Bush Administration Exaggerates Iraqi Threat to Build Support for Invasion
by David T. Pyne, Esq., Columnist and Legal Analyst

Third in a Series

November 25, 2002

Columnist David Pyne Aggravated by administration hype about the growing threat from Iraq, many Americans have expressed near hysterical fears that Saddam is on the verge of developing nuclear weapons to use against the United States. According to a recent CIA report entitled "Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Though 2015," Iraq is "unlikely to test before 2015 any ICBMs that would threaten the United States, even if UN prohibitions were eliminated or significantly reduced in the next few years." The same report says that "the Intelligence Community estimates that Iraq, unconstrained, would take several years to produce enough fissile material to make a(n atomic) weapon." The CIA report neglects to mention that having enough fissile material to produce an atomic weapon does not equate to having sufficient technical expertise to do so, although that seems to be their assumption.

It is very telling that neither the UN inspectors in 1991 or the CIA report written 10 years later makes any commentary as to whether Iraq possesses the technical capability to produce a nuclear weapon. It may well be true that Iraq would not achieve the technical capability to produce a nuclear weapon even if we were to leave it unconstrained. However, Iraq will not be left unconstrained because UN sanctions on WMD technology shipments to Iraq are likely to remain in place indefinitely. Finally, even if Saddam had nuclear weapons and the ability to deliver them to US soil, he has not shown any inclination to employ such weapons against the US. Witness the fact that he chose not to employ the chemical or biological weapons he has possessed for the past two decades against US targets, even when facing a massive invasion of his country by 500,000 US troops during Operation Desert Storm.

The truth is that Iraq's arsenal of WMD and ballistic missiles has decreased markedly since the Gulf War, and along with it, the threat to Iraq's neighbors. This is due primarily to the fact that UN and International Atomic Energy Agency weapons inspectors spent seven years in Iraq dismantling the capability. Iraqi technology in these areas has remained static. Iraq has developed no new missiles since the Gulf War. The longest range Iraqi missile is still the Al-Hussein, a modified SCUD short-range ballistic missile that has a range of no more than 600 kilometers (about 360 miles). The Al-Hussein can reach Israel, but not Europe and certainly not the United States. According to UN officials, "new" evidence of Iraqi nuclear capability is nothing but old recycled data from the first Gulf War. Those same UN inspectors report that Iraq's nuclear program was completely dismantled at that time.

The Arab League passed a unanimous resolution last week condemning the planned US invasion of Iraq and concluding that Iraq poses no threat to her neighbors. If Iraq's neighbors, including tiny Kuwait which was actually invaded by Iraq a dozen years ago and continues to share a common border with Iraq, don't believe Iraq is a threat, why is it that the most powerful nation in the world considers Iraq a threat to its national security? Gen. Anthony Zinni, former Commander-in-Chief-US Central Command, stated at a national security conference this past September that in his view "Iraq was only the seventh greatest threat to the US" and that "we should only worry about the top five." He added that in his opinion ``We are about to do something that will ignite a fuse in this region that we will rue the day we ever started.''

Chemical-Biological-Radiological attacks against invading US troops and/or Israeli cities by a Saddam who has nothing to lose may lead Bush or Israel to nuke Baghdad. If that happens, the entire Arab world will erupt against the United States; our troops may be cut off in the Iraqi quagmire and 9/11 copycat attacks, potentially employing weapons of mass destruction, may become a much more commonplace occurrence in America. ***

David T. Pyne, Esq. is a national security expert who serves as President of the Center for the National Security Interest, a pro-defense, national security think-tank based in Arlington, VA. He has served as a Country Program Director in the Department of Defense responsible for the countries of the former Soviet Union, the Middle East and Latin America and has traveled as a member of Department of Defense-led delegations to Canada, South Africa, Israel, Brazil and Argentina. Mr. Pyne is a licensed attorney and former Army Reserve Officer. He holds an MA in National Security Studies from Georgetown University. Mr. Pyne also serves as Executive Vice President of the Virginia Republican Assembly. Mr. Pyne was recently interviewed on Howard Phillips' Conservative Roundtable TV program. Mr. Pyne serves as a columnist for American-Partisan.com , OpinioNet.net and America's Voices. He is also a regular contributor for Patriotist.com. In addition, his articles have appeared on Etherzone.com, Sierratimes.com, OriginalDissent.com and AmericanReformation.org where he serves as a national security policy analyst. He has been cited in the New American Magazine and was recently interviewed on Howard Phillips' Conservative Roundtable TV program.

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