Short War, Long Peace?

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Short War, Long Peace?
by James Hall, Senior Associate Editor

February 28, 2003

"Leaning Left"

James Hall Like a Chinese finger-puzzle, Iraq will be easy to enter, hard to pull out of. Though it is still conceivable that the few hundred thousand Iraqis who depend on Saddam for their living just might decide to put up a fight. Or that we might have burning oil fields and blown-up dams, power stations, and refineries to fix. There will certainly be tons of VX gas to clean up, and hidden stores of bioweapons and maybe radiological weapons to find and dismantle before terrorists get their hands on them.

Still, most outside observers believe that US forces will make quick work of Saddam Hussein and then occupy Iraq. But that's just the beginning, isn't it?

When all the action dies down, we'll have a country to run. Unlike Afghanistan, which we quickly turned back over to the locals, Iraq is too important to give to just anyone. It's got too much oil-and therefore money-and it's situated right in the center of the Middle East, a stone's throw from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iran. It can't be ignored or forgotten in the way we've largely forgotten about Afghanistan.

What's driving a lot of European opposition, besides our heavy-handed approach to war, is the worry that whoever takes control of Iraq after we leave may be worse than Saddam Hussein is now.

That's because Iraq is a heady mix of volatile populations. In the north of the country, there's the ethnic Kurds, who were famously gassed by Saddam. They're enemies of Turkey, clients of Iran, and want to form their own state. We've given them ten years of autonomy, thanks to the northern No-Fly Zone, meaning that they will probably resist being reintegrated back into Iraq. And their politics are mostly communist and socialist.

In the south and east most Iraqis are Shiite Arabs, a religious group with ties to Syria and Iran, feared by Sunni arab states like Saudi Arabia. Their politics are religious, and they would prefer to establish an Islamic state like Iran's. Their ayatollah, or religious leader, has already said he'll preach a fatwa against the US if our military starts to run Iraq. They're the majority population of Iraq and may form a Shiite government once they get the vote. If they do, it will disturb all the Sunni Arab states in the region.

In the middle of the country are the Sunni Arabs, many of whom support Saddam. A large number of them are secularist, Baath socialists and they run the country. The US will likely need them, as it needed Nazis in post-WWII Germany and the Japanese government in post-WWII Japan, to keep the country running. And the Kurds and the Shiites will likely be unhappy about this arrangement.

Now if you think the US relies too much on the UN these days, just wait until we've occupied Iraq. The UN feeds 60% of Iraq's population under the Oil for Peace program and handles much of the relief efforts throughout the country, either directly or through organizations like Oxfam who have come out against the war. We'll either have to deal directly with these organizations or feed and clothe the Iraqis ourselves.

And oh yes, the cost. The Pentagon has just placed an $85 billion estimate on the first six months of war and occupation. That's not including the $26 billion we're paying the Turks to join our "Coalition of the Willing to be Bribed." What the entire occupation will end up costing us has yet to be estimated, but it makes you wonder just what kind of homeland defense we could put up if we had just a fraction of that money. Right now there's all of $3.5 billion in this year's homeland defense budget.

Finally, President Bush has just announced that we intend to build a model democracy in post-Saddam Iraq. (Quite a change for a man who campaigned against nation building in 2000, isn't it?) The Arab world, including our allies Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Morocco will be watching this carefully. Inasmuch as we succeed in forming the first Arab democracy, we'll undermine the government of our friends there, or force them to change in ways we can't yet comprehend. And will the change to democracy necessarily buy us the good will of the Middle East? Did it buy us the good will of Europe? ***

James Hall
Orlando, FL USA

Photo of the author courtesy of staff files