Beware the Ides of March

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Beware the Ides of March
by James Hall, Senior Associate Editor

March 17, 2003

"Leaning Left"

James Hall Soothsayer: "Beware the ides of March!"
Caesar: "He is a dreamer. Let us leave him: pass." Julius Caesar, Act I, Scene II

The ides of March weren't good times for would-be dictator Julius Caesar, and they won't be good for Saddam Hussein, either. Few observers give the Iraqi dictator a chance in this nearly certain conflict. But George W. Bush must understand that that the ides of March, the anticipated start of his war, won't necessarily be good for him. War is always dangerous and uncertain.

A just war, whether based on Christian ideals like those of Augustine and Aquinas, or on modern secular theory, requires the aggressor-in this case the United States-to have exhausted all other possibilities before acting. Have we done all we could do to peacefully disarm Saddam Hussein and remove his weapons of mass destruction? Have we tried all remedies, every peaceful initiative to remove deadly weapons?

And more: are our motives for war pure? Are we in this conflict solely to protect the citizens of the US and the world from weapons of mass destruction? Or are we motivated, as Augustine once asked, by baser motives---by anger, greed or revenge? These emotions can't be a part of any decision to start a just war.

Finally, will we conduct this war with due regard to the civilian population of Iraq, held hostage by a ruthless dictator who won't mind using them as human shields? The conduct of a just war demands that we act to spare innocent civilian lives and take steps to assist them as war and chaos widens in their country. Practical considerations require no less, for the world will be watching us closely, and our reputation will be enhanced or degraded by how we conduct ourselves in this war.

The nature of war is always chaotic, and although the US has the best trained and equipped force on the planet, and stalwart allies in Britain and Australia (and a dwindling few others), Iraq has far more wild-cards than Afghanistan ever did. This won't be a Desert Storm rout either, a 100-hour war that ends with Iraqi generals quickly surrendering their swords.

Saddam and his ruling generals had little to lose in Desert Storm. They lost Kuwait and a hundred thousand conscript soldiers, but Saddam never cared about them in the first place. This time, those who inhabit the Iraqi power structure have everything to lose if the US wins, since we have made "regime change" a clear goal.

That goal will make the Iraqi power structure more likely to take risks. Risks like launching weapons of mass destruction, sending rockets laden with anthrax or VX gas at Israel, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and at our troops. UN inspectors recently found new signs of missile warheads equipped to drop clusters of chemical and bioweapons, developed at a place called Haidar Farm. They also found plans drawn up in 1991 to send 100 chemical and biological-equipped warheads against the coalition that freed Kuwait. Saddam shelved those plans when the coalition refused to advance to Baghdad. But this time, it won't.

With Saddam backed into a corner, there's also little risk to him in setting fire to oil fields in the north and south of Baghdad as he did in Kuwait, or in opening up the taps and sending oil streaming into the Persian Gulf to foul shipping and create chaos. And while Kuwait had 700 oil wells to set on fire, Iraq possesses 1500. There's also little risk to Saddam in blowing up the dams and bridges in the western part of Iraq, sending a flood of water to slow the advancing US tanks.

Saddam has certainly had time to think about these tactics, and US war planners rightly fear them. Now with the March 17 deadline, he has days to put them in place without our interference. We already hear about explosives being moved into the oil fields and Iraqi forces dispersing into the population centers to avoid being bombed.

Those who are optimistic say that the worst won't happen. That Iraqis will disobey orders to launch weapons of mass destruction and refuse to destroy their oil wells. That Iraqis will throw down their weapons and surrender without fighting. I hope these pundits are right. But meanwhile, we ought to be asking ourselves if we've really done everything we possibly can to avoid a war and nothing is left for us but war. Because war is inherently dangerous, chaotic, and its nature is miscalculation. Beware the ides of March, Caesar. ***

James Hall
Orlando, FL USA

Photo of the author courtesy of staff files