Summer Simmers

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Summer Simmers
by James Hall, Senior Associate Editor

Augusr 20, 2004

"Leaning Left"

James Hall Hello, and welcome back to TAP, everyone. I missed you all.

A lot has happened since we published in May. According to the Bush administration's political game plan, this would be the time when Iraq would settle down and become a prosperous democratic role model for the Middle East. Al-Qaeda would be beaten down by the severe losses in its leadership. The new Bush economy, fueled by the largest tax cuts in history, would roar into life and demolish any chances of a Democratic victory this fall. Republicans would live happily ever after.

Instead, U.S. Marines battle Shiite militianen in the holy city of Najaf, the roadside bombs continue to go off, and the toll of dead and wounded Americans rises.

Here at home, the 'robust' Bush economy sputters and Turning the Corner appears to be more difficult than anticipated.

According to the latest intelligence, al-Qaeda is active and targeting the symbols of American economic supremacy here at home while it attacks U.S. troops and civilian contractors abroad.

Meanwhile, John Kerry's campaign picks up steam and now challenges George Bush in every poll.

It's the nightmare scenario for the administration. The country appears to be as divided as it can be, and so it may be an uninvolved, unpoliticized 3 percent of the electorate who chooses our next president. Everyone else has already made up his or her mind. That's unprecedented in the history of American elections.

So will it be a spectacular campaign commercial or personal revelation that swings the election this year? I'm betting not. Both campaigns are too disciplined, both campaigners too experienced for that.

This campaign will hinge on how well the economy, Iraq, and the War on Terror are going in October. If things have calmed down overseas by then and the economy is producing jobs, look for President Bush to be the favorite; if not, then Senator Kerry will be our next president.

Unfortunately for the president, a lot can go wrong before then:

· The fighting in Najaf. The Shiites, the largest ethnic group in Iraq, were supposed to be our friends and supporters. They were as anti-Saddam as we were, but it appears that the occupation and their own bad national economy has turned them against us. We must regain their support or they'll undermine the U.S. effort there..

· Saddam's Baathist loyalists aren't finished, either.. Rumors have it that they're planning a spectacular uprising/attack to correspond with U.S. elections.

· Afghanistan has its own elections going on right now, and the pro-Taliban forces are mobilizing to disrupt them. U.S. forces in Afghanistan must stop them, or the War on Terror takes a step backwards, and that's not good for the president.

· Al-Qaeda is also said to be preparing a spectacular attack timed to the elections. Their attack on transportation in Spain toppled the Spanish conservatives who supported President Bush.

· At some point, we've go to actually produce jobs in this Jobless Recovery because Bill Clinton was right: it is about the economy. And that uninvolved 3 percent will vote its pocketbook in the end.

So, the minefield is laid out. Can President Bush make it through it safely? ***

Photo of the author courtesy of staff files