Everything Seemed Obvious

Everything Seemed Obvious
by Josh London

Once again, I cannot fathom why the domestic political scene so excites many of my conferees. Like them, I consider myself a political junkie, but, unlike them, I can barely get excited enough to finish reading the front page of my daily newspaper, much less its coverage of the 2000 election. Those who are excited by all this are probably either lying, getting paid for it, both, or are sick in the head.

I don't know; perhaps I'm just dense. I thought everything seemed obvious.

There is little doubt in Democratic circles that Gore will trounce Bradley and receive the nomination from his party. Very, very early on it did look as if Gore was in trouble, and a credible case could have been made to that effect. I rejected such Cinderella mind-games then and continue to do so now. Bradley is history.

Ditto for McCain.

Why everyone got so excited over the potential upset of a McCain victory in South Carolina, and why many thought that McCain would receive the Republican nomination struck me as odd. Did they really think that Bush would loose again to independents or to Democrats voting for McCain? Did they really think that McCain had a good chance of becoming the Republican nominee this year? How? Why? I just don't comprehend how so many can find the time to remain so impressively ignorant of the world in which they live.

Kindly note the following historical reality: in modern times, the front-runner for the nomination always wins the nomination. Always, always, always. This shouldn't be a concept difficult to grasp.

It is true that sometimes the front-runner stumbles, but he always catches himself and pulls ahead again to win: remember Richard Nixon and Hubert Humphrey in 1968; George McGovern in '72; Gerald Ford (beating back Ronald Reagan) and Jimmy Carter in '76; Carter (beating back Ted Kennedy) and Reagan in '80; Walter Mondale (rallying against the Gary Hart challenge) in '84; Michael Dukakis and George Bush in '88; Bill Clinton in '92; Bob Dole in '96. I have yet to see anything to suggest that the 2000 election cycle will break this historical trend.

Also consider that, going into the South Carolina primary, John McCain had yet to demonstrate that he could even win a Republican primary. His victory in New Hampshire was based on a solid win among independents, preventing defeat by Bush who carried GOP loyalists. McCain did not carry his party in that victory. Having lost in both Delaware and, now, South Carolina, it should be clear that his New Hampshire victory was just the backward vote of a state that, after all, backed Paul Tsongas and Pat Buchanan.

As everyone who knows anything about American politics should have known, South Carolina did not become the primary that followed New Hampshire by accident. Conservative GOP leaders deliberately arranged for one of the most conservative states in the nation to hold an early primary so they would be in a position to try and bolster support for, and repair any damage sustained by, the front-runner -- Tweedle Dee, er, I mean, George Dubya. Besides, the party faithful don't really trust Yankees.

Also consider the so-called "loophole" primaries on the Republican side in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Illinois -- which are obvious advantages for Bush over McCain. In all three of these big states, the presidential candidates run in a veritable "ugly contest" where the winner cannot count on the support of any of the delegates at the convention -- not a one.

In these states, the delegates run on their own, without affiliating with any presidential candidate. Once elected, they are free to vote for whoever they want -- i.e., whoever the state chairman says they should vote for. This will, of course, be the front runner with the huge campaign coffers -- George Dubya, again.

Certainly now, my easily excited conferees ought to recognize that it is all over for McCain. The easily angered, war-hero, Beltway-insider, Senator lost South Carolina, Dubya won. Three times in the last three presidential cycles, South Carolina's Saturday primary has effectively chosen the Republican presidential nominee. Dubya will, thus, more than likely be the Republican Presidential nominee for 2000.

At this stage, even my political junkie friends ought to recognize that nothing exciting is likely to happen until Bush gets closer to considering a Vice Presidential candidate to balance out his ticket. Not that choosing a VP ever makes things terribly exciting for Republican candidates, but it will, at the very least, break up the monotony.