How Convenient

How Convenient
by Linda A. Prussen-Razzano

On December 31, 1999, as part of the world partied and the other hunkered down, fearing the worst and praying for the best, a peculiar event took place across the globe. No, it was not revellers collapsing from inebriation, twins being born on either side of the calendar year, or Hillary Clinton being met with boos and cheers of "Monica, Monica" at the Washington, D.C. self-worship fest; it was, specifically, the launching of Russian Scud missiles against Grozny, the last remaining rebel hold-out in the Russian providence of Chechnya.

In many ways, the 2nd installment of the Chechnya War is similar to the situation in Serbia’s providence, Kosovo. Since the 19th Century, Chechens have fought against Russian rule. Their brief succession from Russia in 1917 was promptly squashed when the Red Army reclaimed control in 1920. The area was thrown back into flux in 1991, when then President Dzhokar Dudayev’s local government declared independence from Russia. When the declaration was formalized in 1993, a messy, ugly civil war ensued. Dudayev was run out of office and reportedly killed in 1996; an estimated 1,500 soldiers and 25,000 to 80,000 civilians died in the conflict. The "rebels" engaged in guerilla tactics that exposed the failings of the superior Russian military might, bucking against what they perceived to be rigged elections and charges of fraud. The conflict was brought to a "peaceful" resolution in 1997, with assurances that Chechnya’s fate would be ultimately determined by 2001.

At the time of the initial conflict, Russia’s leaders were completely unwilling to allow the Providence to declare independence. Although the public had lost it’s taste for Chechnya’s occupation, Yeltsin feared "that capitulation to a separatist government in one ethnic republic would set a precedent for other independence-minded regions" (Federation of American Scientists, John Pike). Further, Chechnya’s strategic location places it between Russia proper and the Black and Caspian Seas. Finally, "vital Russian oil and gas pipeline connections with Kazakstan and Azerbaijan also run through Chechnya." (FAS, Pike).

Although negotiations were attempted to resolve strategic differences, the talks have not been successful. Disagreements over oil, trade tariffs, and military protection have led to a resurgence of conflicts between the occupying military forces and the locals. As of December 31, 1999, the latest round of rebellion was reduced to Grozny, a town that was leveled during the first Chechnya War.

Interestingly, on December 31, 1999, Russia launched Scud missiles against Chechnya during the latest round of engagements. We know that Russia launched at least three Scud missiles because the Pentagon detected them during their joint Y2K United States-Russian Surveillance. Russian military officials, who presumably had access to this data, assured the United States that these launches were not related to Y2K.

Why is this interesting? It’s interesting because these Scud launches are the first of their kind to be launched in the latest campaign. It’s interesting because Russian military officials were reportedly also monitoring our screens for unexpected launch detections. It’s interesting because, in theory, anyway, the Russian military officials could confirm exactly what our system detected when the Scuds were launched.

Although the Pentagon did not confirm the type, the Scuds were probably SS-23s, capable of transporting various warheads at a range of 500 km. If Russia really wanted to test our detection systems, they could have launched these to travel at specific altitudes, over varying regions, and await confirmation from their US based monitors when they were spotted. Although these are single phase, short-range ballistic missiles, several nations unfriendly to the United States also have them. Russia wouldn’t waste it’s time firing these at American shores, but unfriendly countries (stupid enough to try) might be willing to pay a hefty price to hear what the Russian monitors saw.

While I have the utmost confidence in our military personnel, this is the Clinton Administration we’re taking about, right? This Administration, a military man's worst nightmare, wouldn’t be so stupid as to demand our top brass tip our hand completely in this matter... would they?

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Arthur Oldner contributed to this article.